The World Bank has stated that while Nigeria has the potential to reach a $1 trillion economy by 2030, achieving that milestone requires a growth rate five times faster than what the country is currently experiencing.
This projection was shared during the launch of the May 2025 edition of the Nigeria Development Update (NDU), where the global financial institution emphasized that Nigeria’s recent macroeconomic reforms, although beneficial, are not enough on their own to secure long-term economic expansion.
“Reforms in macroeconomic policy are important, but they need to be backed by broader structural changes to produce sustained and inclusive growth,” said Alex Sienaert, the World Bank’s lead economist in Nigeria.
The country experienced a notable boost in GDP growth, reaching 3.84% in Q4 2024, mainly driven by a thriving services sector. Overall, Nigeria recorded 3.40% economic growth for 2024, up from 2.74% in 2023—its strongest non-pandemic growth performance since 2015.
Despite this momentum, Nigeria still faces global economic headwinds that could temper its outlook. Nonetheless, the World Bank projects modest progress in the coming years, forecasting growth of 3.6% in 2025 and 3.8% between 2026 and 2027.
In contrast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently revised Nigeria’s 2025 growth outlook downward to 3.0%, attributing the adjustment to declining oil output and mounting global trade uncertainties.
These projections fall short of the 4.6% annual GDP growth target set by Nigeria in its 2025 budget—highlighting a gap between current trends and the country’s economic ambitions.
To bridge that gap, the World Bank recommended a two-pronged approach: maintaining solid public sector policies while encouraging large-scale private investments. These efforts, it said, should be backed by reforms that promote competition, and improvements in infrastructure and business conditions.
