Nigeria has officially exited the “crisis management” phase that characterized the first two years of President Bola Tinubu’s administration.1 Speaking at the launch of the 2026 Macroeconomic Outlook Report in Lagos, Finance Minister Wale Edun declared that the era of turbulent transitions—marked by subsidy removals and currency unification—has paved the way for a period of economic consolidation.
The government’s new mandate is clear: translate macroeconomic stability into “lived experiences” for Nigerians through job creation, food security, and infrastructure resilience.
1. Key Performance Indicators: The 2025 “Steadying”
Before forecasting 2026, the Minister highlighted the recovery metrics recorded over the past year. Despite a severe cost-of-living crisis, the fundamental data suggests the “bottoming out” of the economy has occurred:
| Economic Metric | 2024 Peak/Low | November/December 2025 |
| Headline Inflation | 33.18% | 14.45% (NBS Report) |
| Exchange Rate | ~₦1,900/$ | < ₦1,500/$ |
| External Reserves | ~$33 Billion | $45.5 Billion |
| GDP Growth | 2.98% | 3.78% (Avg. 9-months 2025) |
| Stock Market (ASI) | – | +60% YoY Growth |
2. The ₦152 Trillion Debt: A Matter of “Transparency”
Minister Edun addressed the public anxiety regarding Nigeria’s ₦152 trillion debt stock. He argued that the staggering figure is not a result of a “borrowing spree,” but rather an accounting reconciliation:
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The “Ways and Means” Factor: Approximately ₦30 trillion was previously unrecorded Central Bank support that has now been brought into the official books.
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Forex Revaluation: ₦49 trillion of the jump is attributed to the revaluation of existing foreign debt following the 2024/2025 exchange rate adjustments.
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Sustainability: Despite the high nominal value, Nigeria’s debt-to-GDP ratio sits at 36.1%, significantly below the regional average of 60%.
3. Strategic Outlook for 2026
The 2026 “Budget of Consolidation” is anchored on four primary pillars:
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Digital Revenue Collection: Implementing a centralized billing system to block leakages and move away from debt-heavy funding.
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Pro-Poor Tax Measures: Expanding exemptions for small businesses and low-income households under the Nigeria Tax Act 2025.
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Infrastructure Acceleration: Prioritizing the completion of over 90,000 kilometers of fiber optic cables and critical rail projects.
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Exchange Rate Target: Forecasting a stable Naira at approximately ₦1,400/$ by year-end 2026.
4. Projections: The Road to a $1 Trillion Economy
| Forecast Item | 2026 Projection |
| Target GDP Growth | 4.68% |
| Average Inflation12 | 16.5%13 |
| Oil Production | 1.71 mbpd |
| Budget Deficit14 | ~4% of GDP15 |
“Nigeria cannot afford to pause or retreat. The task now is to turn stability into sustained, inclusive, and job-rich growth.”16 — Wale Edun, Minister of Finance
