Supply First, Price Later: NNPC’s 2026 Strategy Under GCEO Bayo Ojulari

At the Nigeria International Energy Summit (NIES) 2026 held in Abuja on February 4, 2026, the Group Chief Executive Officer of NNPC Limited, Engr. Bayo Ojulari, outlined a pragmatic “execution-first” strategy for Nigeria’s energy future.

Ojulari, who took the reins from Mele Kyari in April 2025, has shifted the company’s focus toward commercial viability, acknowledging that past efforts to run state-owned refineries as government-managed projects resulted in “monumental losses.”

1. The Refinery “Reset”: From Operators to Partners

One of the most striking revelations from the summit was Ojulari’s admission that NNPC presently lacks the internal capacity to operate refineries profitably. Consequently, the company has halted operations at state-owned plants to “stop the rot.”

• The Chinese Partnership: Ojulari confirmed that NNPC is in advanced talks with a major Chinese petrochemical firm to take an equity stake and lead the operations of one of Nigeria’s refineries.

• Equity Sell-Down: The new strategy involves selling equity to private entities with proven track records. “We are not looking for contractors; we are looking for partners with skin in the game,” Ojulari stated.

• The “Hybrid” Model: NNPC is redesigning its refineries to be “hybrid plants” that can produce fuels meeting international specifications (Euro V), ensuring they can compete globally rather than just domestically.

2. Strengthening the Dangote Alliance

Ojulari dismissed the narrative of “tensions” between NNPC and the Dangote Refinery, describing the 650,000 bpd facility as a “critical stabilizer” and a “breathing space” for the country.

• Shareholder Synergy: As a shareholder in the Dangote Refinery, NNPC is looking to leverage this partnership to expand its own downstream business across West Africa.

• The African Market: Ojulari argued that even with Dangote at full capacity, there remains a 20% to 30% capacity gap in the wider African market over the next seven years, justifying continued investment in NNPC’s own assets.

3. Launch of the Gas Master Plan (GMP) 2026

Just days before the summit, on January 30, 2026, NNPC officially unveiled the NGMP 2026, a roadmap to transform Nigeria into a global gas hub.

• Production Target: Aiming for 10 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) by 2027 and 12 Bcf/d by 2030.

• Investment: Seeking to catalyze $60 billion in new investments across the gas value chain by 2030.

• Priority Sectors: The plan prioritizes gas supply to Power Generation, Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) for transport, and LPG (cooking gas) to lower costs for Nigerian households.

The “New NNPC” Operating Benchmarks (2026)

4. “Availability Before Pricing”

Addressing the public’s concern over petrol prices, which crossed the ₦1,000/litre mark in late 2024, Ojulari was candid: supply security must come first. He argued that once the market is saturated and local refining is consistent, prices will naturally stabilize through competition and reduced logistics costs.