While the Nigerian economy remains on a growth path, the pace of that growth took a visible hit in March 2026. According to the Business Confidence Monitor (BCM) released by the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) on April 10, the Current Business Performance Index dropped to 101.2 points, down from 117.2 points in February. While any score above 100 indicates expansion, the 16-point decline signals a cooling off across major industrial sectors.
Sectoral Slowdown: Manufacturing and Services Hit Hard The “big three” sectors of the Nigerian economy all reported weaker momentum compared to the start of the year:
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Manufacturing: Crashed from 121.1 to 103.4 points, reflecting a sharp drop in factory output.
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Services: Slowed to 104.7 points from 109.2.
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Trade: Dipped to 103.8 points, indicating a sluggish month for retail and wholesale commerce.
The “Pain Points” Behind the Decline The NESG report identified a familiar quartet of structural bottlenecks that continue to put the brakes on Nigerian enterprise:
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Limited Access to Finance: Tight credit conditions making it harder for SMEs to scale.
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Frequent Power Outages: Increasing operational costs as firms rely on expensive self-generation.
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Insecurity: Disrupting supply chains and logistics, particularly in agricultural and transit corridors.
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High Rental Costs: Squeezing the margins of urban-based businesses.
A Warning on “Broke” Fiscal Planning During the media session, Mr. Olusegun Omisakin, Chief Economist at NESG, offered a blunt assessment of the nation’s fiscal health. He warned against the “optics” of massive budgets that aren’t backed by realistic revenue.
“Most developing countries are broke. We see budgets as huge as something… we should moderate our budget as to how it can drive the economy,” Omisakin stated.
He urged the government to moderate fiscal expectations and focus on the untapped potential within the informal sector, rather than simply expanding the deficit.
The Silver Lining vs. The Warning Signs
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Expansionary: Production, demand, and employment levels are still technically growing.
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Contractionary: Crucial indicators like export performance, operating profit, and supply orders have officially slipped into the “red zone” (below 100 points), suggesting that while businesses are busy, they are finding it increasingly difficult to turn a profit or sell abroad.
