HOUSTON & ABUJA — Speaking at the CERAWeek 2026 conference in Houston, the Group CEO of NNPC Limited, Engr. Bashir Bayo Ojulari, has made a bold claim: Nigeria is ready to inject an additional 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) into the global market within the next few months.
This comes at a critical time when the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has created a significant supply gap, putting pressure on non-Middle Eastern producers to step up.
1. The Production Target: Closing the “NUPRC Gap”
While Nigeria has struggled with underperformance early this year (missing January/February targets by roughly 16.6 million barrels combined), Ojulari is recalibrating expectations:
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The Goal: To move from the current average of 1.6M – 1.7M bpd to a steady 1.8 million bpd for the 2026 fiscal year.
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The Strategy: This isn’t just about “found” oil; it’s about the “Fit-For-Future” portfolio review completed in 2025. NNPC is now focusing on project execution—ensuring delayed upstream assets finally reach “First Oil” on budget.
2. Geopolitical Realism: “We are not Saudi Arabia”
Ojulari provided a pragmatic assessment of Nigeria’s role in the global energy hierarchy.
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Unlike Saudi Arabia, which maintains massive “spare capacity” that can be turned on like a tap, Nigeria’s increase is a “capacity-building” effort.
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The Message: Nigeria is not a “swing producer,” but it is a “dependable contributor” that can help take the edge off global price spikes caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
3. Execution over Exploration
A major takeaway for your business is the shift in NNPC’s internal culture under the new leadership:
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Portfolio Review: Last year’s review has led to a “pruning” of the business. The focus for 2026 is disciplined delivery.
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Project Discipline: The GCEO emphasized that previous delays were unacceptable. By improving the Delegation of Authority (DoA) and financial frameworks, NNPC is attempting to move with the speed of an International Oil Company (IOC).
4. The Deepwater & Gas Pivot
Beyond immediate crude gains, the administration is doubling down on Deepwater assets (like OPL 245) and the Gas Master Plan 2026.
“We are not choosing between today and tomorrow; we are funding the future with the present.” — Bayo Ojulari at CERAWeek.
This indicates that while oil provides the immediate cash flow to help with the global shortfall, the long-term investment is moving toward Gas-to-Power and Regional Pipelines (like the Nigeria-Morocco project).
The Business Verdict
For your company, the “Ojulari Era” at NNPC appears to be defined by Operational De-risking. If the promised 100,000 bpd increase materializes, it will provide much-needed foreign exchange stability for the 2026 budget. However, the shortfall in the first two months of the year suggests that “execution” remains the biggest hurdle.
