Trade Triumph: Nigeria’s Surplus Jumps 43.8% to N19.32 Trillion, But Crude Still Dominates Exports

Q3’25: Slowdown in the Surplus

While the overall trend for 9M’25 is positive, the NBS report signaled a recent slowdown. The trade balance declined by $10.36$ per cent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) to $\text{N}6.69$ trillion in Q3’25, despite total merchandise trade still growing by $2.36$ per cent compared to Q2’25.

In Q3’25, total trade stood at $\text{N}38.94$ trillion, with exports accounting for $58.59$ per cent ($\text{N}22.8$ trillion) and imports accounting for $41.41$ per cent ($\text{N}16.12$ trillion).

Crude Oil Remains the Engine

The data clearly illustrates Nigeria’s continued heavy reliance on hydrocarbon exports:

• Crude Oil Exports stood at $\text{N}12.81$ trillion in Q3’25, representing the majority at $56.14$ per cent of total exports.

• Non-Crude Oil Exports accounted for $43.86$ per cent ($\text{N}10.01$ trillion).

• Non-Oil Products (excluding other non-crude components) contributed $\text{N}2.99$ trillion, or just $13.14$ per cent of total exports.

The report emphasizes that while the overall trade balance is robust, diversification remains a key challenge, as the majority of export revenue continues to be generated by crude oil.