The Epstein Files: A Billionaire’s Hesitation in the Nigerian Oil Market

Newly surfaced documents from the “Epstein Files” released in early 2026 have shed light on a surprising chapter in the financial dealings of the late American financier, Jeffrey Epstein. The documents reveal that in 2010, Epstein explored the possibility of “lifting” Nigerian crude oil—a high-stakes trade that involves purchasing large volumes of oil directly from the source for international resale.

In an email exchange with a contact identified as David Stern, Epstein discussed the intricacies of navigating the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). However, despite his attraction to the massive profits associated with Nigerian oil, Epstein ultimately backed out. The records suggest he developed “cold feet,” fearing he would be defrauded by local intermediaries—a notable irony given the fraudulent nature of his own financial empire.

1. The Context: A History of Systemic Leakage

Epstein’s fears of fraud were likely informed by the NNPC’s long-standing reputation for opaque financial dealings. Over the decades, the corporation has been at the center of several high-profile scandals:

• The $16 Billion Gap: A 2016 audit famously revealed that the company had failed to remit roughly $16 billion in oil revenues to the federal government.

• The 2025 Investigation: More recently, investigations in early 2025 highlighted over ₦210 trillion ($153 billion) in unaccounted revenue across the sector.

• Refinery “Turnaround”: Billions have been spent on the maintenance of state refineries that remained largely non-functional, leading to widespread allegations of contract inflation.

2. The Paradigm Shift: Dangote’s Industrial Counter-Strike

While the “old” oil sector was defined by corruption and crude-for-fuel swaps with European traders, 2026 represents a total reversal of roles thanks to the Dangote Refinery.

The $20 billion facility in the Lekki Free Zone is now fundamentally disrupting the global energy balance:

• Ending the ARA Monopoly: For decades, the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) hub profited from selling surplus gasoline to Nigeria. In early 2026, Nigerian petrol imports hit their lowest levels since 2017, effectively killing a $17 billion-a-year market for European refiners.

• Exporting Quality: In a historic move, Dangote has begun exporting Euro V specification diesel and aviation fuel to Europe and gasoline to the United States, proving that Nigerian-refined products can meet or exceed global standards.

• Energy Security: The refinery recently signed expanded Gas Sales and Purchase Agreements (GSPA) with NNPCL to secure fuel for its power plants, supporting plans to potentially double its current 650,000 bpd capacity.

3. Nigeria Gas Master Plan (NGMP) 2026

The signing of these agreements took place alongside the unveiling of the NGMP 2026 in Abuja.

• The Target: To increase national gas production to 10 billion cubic feet per day by 2027.

• Investment: The plan aims to attract $60 billion into the gas value chain by 2030, leveraging Nigeria’s 210 trillion cubic feet of proven reserves to fuel domestic industries like Dangote Cement and Dangote Fertilizer.