The persistent instability in Northern Nigeria is increasingly being viewed not as a failure of military might, but as a crisis of intentionality. For many observers, recent events in Katsina and Kaduna have solidified a troubling suspicion: the struggle against banditry and insurgency is not being lost—it is being managed, and perhaps even enabled, for political and personal gain.
The Katsina “Secret” Swap: Justice or Placation?
In early January 2026, a leaked “SECRET” memo from the Katsina State Ministry of Justice exposed a plan to release 70 suspected bandits currently awaiting trial. The government’s justification, voiced by Commissioner Nasir Muazu, is that this move facilitates a “peace deal” across 15 frontline local government areas. By likening the release to a wartime prisoner exchange, the state argues that freeing suspects is a “condition precedent” to sustaining an accord that has reportedly seen 1,000 abductees returned.
However, this logic is fundamentally flawed. Unlike a conventional war between sovereign states, this is an internal security crisis involving criminal elements who have decimated communities. Releasing suspects without trial—many of whom face charges of murder and kidnapping—undermines the rule of law and creates a “revolving door” for criminality. Critics argue that “repentant” bandits often return to the forests once they have secured the release of their comrades, using peace talks as a strategic pause to rearm and regroup.
The Kaduna Denial: A Pattern of Obfuscation
While Katsina negotiates with captors, Kaduna is grappling with the aftermath of a massive abduction. On Sunday, January 18, 2026, over 170 worshippers were snatched from ECWA and Cherubim & Seraphim churches in Kurmin Wali, Kajuru Local Government Area.
The initial response from the Kaduna State Police and local government officials was not a pursuit, but a denial. They dismissed the reports as “falsehoods” spread by “conflict entrepreneurs.” It was only after community leaders released a list of names and independent journalists visited the traumatized village that the authorities performed a quiet about-face. This predictable pattern of denial serves a sinister purpose: it delays immediate response and gives kidnappers the head start they need to vanish into the vast northern forests.
The Profiteers of Chaos
The common thread in these stories is the role of the “conflict entrepreneurs” within the system. The reality is that a sprawling “insecurity economy” has emerged, where top political figures, local elites, and even elements of the security apparatus may be profiting from the cycle of ransom and military expenditure. When bandits are seen dining with government bigwigs or escaping into high-security zones, the narrative of “helplessness” becomes impossible to believe.
Placating criminals through secret deals and denying the reality of victims are not strategies for peace; they are survival tactics for a status quo that benefits the powerful while leaving the vulnerable to pay “royalties” to bandits just to access their own farms. Until the nation confronts the sponsors and sympathizers within its own halls of power, the war in the North will remain a profitable, endless tragedy.
