As 2026 begins, the Nigerian business landscape is undergoing a fundamental shift. Dr. Chukwuka Monye, a University of Oxford-trained innovation strategist and founder of Ciuci Consulting, has issued a stark warning: the era of waiting for “normalcy” is over. In a landmark briefing in Lagos, Monye asserted that uncertainty is no longer a cycle—it is a continuous, permanent feature of the global and local economy.
From Ambition to Composure
In previous decades, entrepreneurship was often defined by “boldness” and aggressive expansion.2 However, Monye argues that 2026 requires a different psychological and operational profile: Composure.
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The Death of the Cycle: Businesses can no longer assume that a shock (like currency devaluation or a policy shift) will be followed by a stable period of recovery.3 Shocks now arrive back-to-back.
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Global Exposure: Local decisions are now instantly influenced by capital flows and policy pressures from distant markets.4 Nigeria is more “exposed” than ever to the global financial pulse.
Building “Structural” Agility
A common mistake among Nigerian founders is relying on their personal energy to drive a business through a crisis.6 Monye insists that agility must be structural, not personal.
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Systems Over Personality: If a business collapses when the founder is unavailable to make a split-second decision, it is not agile—it is fragile.
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The Ability to Adjust: Agility is the systemic capability to shift pricing, supply chains, and operational priorities quickly without internal confusion.
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Clear Authority: Effective businesses in 2026 must have clear financial authority and decentralized decision-making systems to respond to market shifts in real time.
Risk Management: The New “Basic Tool”
Monye is championing a radical shift in how small and medium enterprises view financial risk. He argues that derivatives—once seen as the playground of elite bankers—must become standard tools for the modern entrepreneur.
“A derivative is simply an agreement made today to avoid unpleasant surprises tomorrow,” Monye explained.
Key Tools for the 2026 Entrepreneur:
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Forwards/Futures: Locking in exchange rates or commodity prices today to protect against future volatility.
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Options: Paying a small premium for the right to buy or sell at a certain price, acting as an “insurance policy” against extreme market swings.
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Liquidity Protection: Treating cash-on-hand as a strategic asset. Businesses often fail not due to lack of profit, but due to a lack of “maneuvering room” during a cash crunch.
Resilience Checklist: Is Your Business Model Fragile?
| Characteristic | Fragile Model | Resilient Model (2026 Ready) |
| Strategy | Relies on “calm” market conditions | Designed to function under instability |
| Decision Making | Centralized in the Founder | System-driven & Decentralized |
| Financial Risk | Ignored or “hoped away” | Managed via Derivatives & Hedging |
| Liquidity | Reinvested immediately | Protected as a strategic buffer |
| Pricing | Static / Slow to change | Dynamic & Adjusted in real-time |
Conclusion: The Cost of Inaction
Dr. Monye’s message for 2026 is clear: ignoring risk is not a neutral stance—it is an expensive decision.15 As Nigerian businesses navigate a year of heightened global exposure, the winners will not necessarily be the largest or most “ambitious,” but those designed for endurance and composure.
