In a milestone for Nigeria’s energy sector, Wael Sawan, CEO of Shell PLC, has formally credited the current administration for a “sea change” in the nation’s investment climate. During a meeting at the Presidential Villa in January 2026, Sawan revealed that Shell and its partners are assessing a $20 billion foreign direct investment (FDI) for the Bonga South West project—the most significant energy commitment in Africa in a generation.
1. A Climate of Stability
For years, regulatory bottlenecks and fiscal uncertainty saw international oil companies (IOCs) eyeing the exit. Sawan admitted that Shell was not always keen to invest, but pointed to two specific drivers for this turnaround:
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The “Professional” Energy Team: The administration’s appointment of experienced technocrats, including former Shell executives, has provided a “global standard” of professionalism and a clear understanding of corporate decision-making.
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Policy Continuity: Sawan emphasized that energy giants invest for 40-year cycles, not single administrations. The recent executive orders and direct communication channels established by the presidency have provided the “premium” of long-term stability.
2. The OML 118 Consolidation
Shell has moved to deepen its footprint by acquiring an additional 10% stake in Block OML 118 (home to the Bonga field) from TotalEnergies, bringing its total interest to 65%. This $408 million acquisition signals that Shell is not just maintaining its presence but aggressively expanding its deepwater portfolio.
3. Unlocking the “Stranded” Pipeline
The success of the Bonga revival is expected to act as a catalyst for other stalled projects. Industry analysts estimate that clear regulatory paths could unlock 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) of currently stranded production.
| Project | Operator | Estimated Output (bpd) | Status |
| Zabazaba | Chevron | 150,000 | Pending Regulatory Clarity |
| Bosi | ExxonMobil | 140,000 | Awaiting Fiscal Terms |
| Ude | (Indigenous/JV) | 110,000 | Infrastructure Development |
| Nsiko | Chevron | 100,000 | Engineering Review |
| Satellite Fields | ExxonMobil | 80,000 | Phase Development |
4. Economic “Multiplier” Effects
Bayo Ojulari, the Group CEO of NNPC Limited, highlighted that this isn’t just about oil volumes.
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Industrial Revival: Massive fabrication yards that have sat idle for years are expected to return to life as construction begins.
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Job Creation: The project is projected to generate over 5,000 direct and indirect jobs across the supply chain, fabrication, and logistics sectors.
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Local Content: Approximately 30–40% of the $20 billion investment is targeted toward Nigerian-based service providers.
“Shell is essentially saying that Nigeria is open for serious business again. That message resonates across every boardroom from Houston to London.” — Senior Energy Executive, Lagos
The focus now shifts to the Final Investment Decision (FID), which the presidency has directed to be reached within this administration’s first term. If achieved, the Bonga South West field could provide nearly 30% of the total production increase required for Nigeria to reach its goal of 2 million barrels per day by 2030.
