Nigeria’s private sector closed out 2025 with a significant surge in business confidence, reaching a six-month high in December. According to the latest Stanbic IBTC Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), approximately 59% of firms expressed optimism about the coming year, driven by expansion plans, new branch openings, and a push toward product exports.
The report highlights a resilient economy that has now maintained positive growth for thirteen consecutive months.
The December PMI Snapshot
The headline PMI for December settled at 53.5, a marginal dip from 53.6 in November, but still firmly within the expansionary territory (above 50.0).
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New Orders & Output: Growth was fueled by “marked” monthly increases in customer demand, which supported a 14-month streak of rising sales.
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Agriculture Leads: While expansion was broad-based, the Agricultural sector recorded the sharpest growth in activity.
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Hiring Trends: Employment increased for the sixth straight month, though the pace of job creation slowed to its weakest level since June 2025.
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Delivery Efficiency: Suppliers’ delivery times shortened, credited to prompt payments and a seasonal reduction in road traffic.
The Inflation Reversal: A Festive Spike?
Despite the positive momentum, the report warns of a potential break in Nigeria’s “disinflation” trend. After falling to a five-year low of 14.4% in November, inflation is projected to tick upward in December.
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Forecasted Inflation: Stanbic IBTC estimates December headline inflation at 32.3% (a sharp jump largely due to the “low-base effect” of the 2024 CPI rebasing).
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Cost Pressures: Higher raw material costs and festive-period spending forced firms—particularly in Manufacturing—to raise selling prices.
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Stanbic Estimate: 1.44% month-on-month increase, implying a Consumer Price Index (CPI) of 132.34.
2026 Economic Outlook: “From Risk to Recovery”
Analysts, including Muyiwa Oni (Stanbic IBTC’s Head of Equity Research, West Africa), remain bullish on the mid-term future.
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GDP Growth: Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 3.8% in 2025 and accelerate to 4.1% in 2026.
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Key Drivers:
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Manufacturing & Services: Expected to outperform 2024 levels.
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Dangote Refinery: Increased production is expected to lower fuel prices and stabilize costs.
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Structural Reforms: Infrastructure development and livestock reforms are gaining visibility.
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Interest Rates: Expectations of more accommodative rates in 2026 could further stimulate private consumption and investment.
Summary: Nigerian Economic Indicators (End of 2025)
| Metric | Status / Value | Trend |
| Headline PMI | 53.5 | Expansion (Solid) |
| Business Confidence | ~59% Optimistic | 6-Month High |
| Agriculture Growth | Leading Sector | Strong Upward |
| 2025 GDP Growth | 3.8% (Projected) | Improving |
| 2026 GDP Growth | 4.1% (Projected) | Accelerating |
