As of early 2026, the Nigerian economic landscape presents a stark paradox: while nominal wages have reached historic highs, the “real” value of the average worker’s take-home pay has suffered a multi-trillion naira erosion. This report analyzes the divergence between the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) figures and the lived experience of the Nigerian workforce.
1. The Real Value Deficit
Recent data reveals that Nigerian workers lost approximately ₦2.79 trillion ($1.97 billion) in purchasing power over the recent review period.
- Nominal Growth: Employee salaries increased nominally by 18.43%, rising to ₦75.59 trillion in 2024 from ₦63.83 trillion in 2023.
- Real Decline: When adjusted for inflation (using 2010 constant prices), the real value of these earnings actually fell by 9.85%, dropping to ₦25.48 trillion.
As Prof. Segun Ajibola, former President of the CIBN, noted: “Nominally, you’ve earned more, but in real value, you’ve earned less, which literally means you are poorer.”
2. The Inflation Rebasing of 2025
A major point of contention in 2025 was the Nigerian government’s decision to revise its inflation calculation methodology.
- The Shift: The inflation rate was reported to have dropped from a peak of 34.8% in December 2024 to 14.45% in 2025.
- The Rationale: The Central Bank and NBS argued that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) had not been rebased since 2009. Rebasing shifted the “basket of goods” to reflect modern consumption patterns.
- The Controversy: Many citizens and economists rejected these figures, arguing that the methodological change did not reflect a true decline in the prices of essential goods like food, fuel, and rent.
3. The Minimum Wage Erosion (The ₦70,000 Reality)
In July 2024, the national minimum wage was increased by 133% (from ₦30,000 to ₦70,000). While this was the largest increase in Nigeria’s history, its impact has been rapidly neutralized by currency depreciation and inflation.
| Year | Nominal Minimum Wage | Estimated “Real” Worth (Purchasing Power) |
|---|---|---|
| 2019 | ₦30,000 | ₦30,000 |
| 2023 | ₦30,000 | ₦15,540 |
| Mid-2024 | ₦30,000 | ₦11,708 |
| 2025/2026 | ₦70,000 | ~₦55,379 |
Source: Dataphyte/CBN GDP Expenditure Data
4. Macro-Economic Implications
The erosion of disposable income has led to:
- Reduced Aggregate Demand: As consumers spend a higher percentage of their income on food and essential services, the manufacturing and retail sectors for non-essential goods have seen a slowdown.
- The “Squeezed” Middle Class: Professional workers who saw modest nominal raises find their lifestyle standards declining as the cost of utilities and imported goods continues to rise despite the rebased inflation figures.
- Operational Strain for Businesses: Companies are caught between the need to increase wages to retain talent and the rising cost of production, leading to thinner margins across the board.
5. Conclusion: The Stats vs. The Street
While the 2025/2026 technical rebasing suggests a stabilizing economy on paper, the fundamental challenge remains the purchasing power gap. For the average Nigerian, the ₦70,000 wage today buys significantly less than ₦30,000 did in 2019. The success of current economic reforms will ultimately be judged not by methodological shifts in the CPI, but by the restoration of the real value of the Naira in the pockets of the people.
