Nigeria’s long-standing reign as Africa’s largest fuel importer has officially come to an end. Thanks to the continued ramp-up of Aliko Dangote’s massive refinery, the country has significantly reduced its dependence on foreign fuel. The new continental leader in fuel imports? South Africa.
The transformation comes as Dangote’s $20 billion, 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery—Africa’s largest—begins to operate at higher capacity. Operational since 2024, the refinery marks a major step in Nigeria’s push to refine its own crude oil rather than sending it abroad for processing.
“Nigerian imports are dropping as a result of the continued operation of Dangote,” confirmed Elitsa Georgieva, executive director at energy consultancy CITAC. “Since the beginning of this year, South African imports have been consistently the highest in sub-Saharan Africa.”
This milestone is part of a broader trend across Africa, where countries like Uganda and Mozambique are striving to expand domestic refining. While these efforts are ambitious and often face delays and financial hurdles—as seen with the Dangote project—they reflect a continental shift towards energy self-reliance.
Despite Nigeria’s gains, global fuel traders such as Glencore Plc and Vitol SA continue to see strong demand in South Africa. The country’s own refining capacity has dropped sharply in recent years, with several plants shuttered since 2020 due to accidents and underinvestment.
CITAC reports that South Africa imported 4.2 million tons of refined petroleum in the first quarter of 2025, compared to 3.1 million tons for Nigeria. The consultancy estimates that South Africa will import approximately 15.5 million tons by year’s end—nearly double Kenya’s 8.9 million tons and well ahead of Nigeria’s projected 6.4 million tons.
Over the past five years, South Africa’s refining output has been slashed by more than half. With over 60% of the country’s fuel needs now met through imports, the government is moving to reverse the trend. Last year, it acquired the decommissioned Sapref refinery—previously owned by Shell and BP—in hopes of reviving domestic production.
In the meantime, South Africa remains a prime target for international suppliers. Swiss trading giant Gunvor is reportedly among those shortlisted to purchase Shell’s retail fuel stations, signaling strong ongoing interest in the country’s fuel market.
As Nigeria shifts from fuel importer to producer, the move signals a new era not just for West Africa’s biggest economy, but for the continent’s energy landscape. The success of the Dangote refinery could inspire other African nations to double down on refining investments, aiming for greater control over their own resources and fuel supplies.
