ABUJA — Nigeria’s disinflation journey hit a complex milestone on Monday, March 16, 2026, as the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reported a marginal cooling in headline inflation to 15.06%. While this marks the 11th consecutive monthly decline, the data reveals a growing “inflationary tension” beneath the surface: the pace of decline is slowing, and food prices are beginning to creep back up.
The marginal drop of 0.04% from January’s 15.10% was lower than the aggressive moderate projections from analysts at Coronation Research, who had expected a print closer to 14.12%.
The Macro View: Headline vs. Month-on-Month
The headline figure tells a story of long-term cooling, but the month-on-month (MoM) data suggests short-term heat.
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Year-on-Year (YoY): At 15.06%, inflation is at its lowest level since November 2020.
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Month-on-Month (MoM): Prices rose by 2.01% in February, a sharp reversal from the -2.88% deflationary dip seen in January. This spike is largely attributed to early bulk-buying ahead of Ramadan and reduced farming activities during the “lean season.”
Key Drivers: The Naira vs. The Middle East
Two opposing forces are currently dictating the direction of the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
The Tailwinds (Downward Pressure):
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Currency Strength: The Naira’s appreciation to ₦1,363.40/$1 (from ₦1,386.55 in January) has helped lower the cost of imported goods.
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Policy Support: Government interventions in agriculture and a 50-basis-point interest rate cut by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN)—bringing the MPR to 26.50%—signal a cautious pivot toward supporting growth.
The Headwinds (Upward Pressure):
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The War Factor: Geopolitical tensions involving the US, Israel, and Iran have kept global energy prices high. Bonny Light crude rose to $72.33/barrel in February, keeping “imported inflation” a constant threat.
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Food Volatility: Food inflation reversed its six-month downward trend, rising to 12.12% from 8.89% in January, driven by staples like beans, yam flour, and cassava.
State-by-State Inflation Profile
The cost-of-living experience remains highly fragmented across Nigeria.
| Category | Highest Inflation | Lowest Inflation |
| Headline (YoY) | Kogi (23.57%), Benue (22.85%) | Katsina (7.78%), Imo (11.66%) |
| Headline (MoM) | Enugu (5.92%), Ogun (4.39%) | Zamfara (-2.14%), Bauchi (-1.23%) |
The Policy Outlook
The CBN’s recent “cautious” rate cut to 26.50% appears justified by this marginal moderation. However, with core inflation (excluding food and energy) still proving “sticky” and the Middle East crisis ongoing, the central bank remains in a high-stakes balancing act: trying to stimulate a recovering economy without reigniting the inflationary fire.
“Our projection was supported by favorable base effects, but the ongoing global energy crisis remains the wildcard that could reverse these trends,” Coronation Research noted.
