ABUJA / LEKKI — In a historic pivot toward energy self-sufficiency, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has officially suspended the issuance of gasoline (PMS) import licences. The decision, effective as of February and March 2026, enforces a key provision of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA), which restricts fuel imports to “buffer” roles—allowing them only when domestic supply falls short of national demand.
This move effectively hands over the reins of the Nigerian fuel market to the Dangote Refinery, which recently surpassed its rated capacity to meet and even exceed national consumption.
The New Market Landscape
The suspension marks a radical shift for oil marketing giants like TotalEnergies, Conoil, and MRS Nigeria. In early 2026, these companies still accounted for roughly 25% of the nation’s imports. Now, they must pivot to sourcing products locally or focus on the retail and logistics segments of the value chain.
Comparison: The Shift in Supply (Daily Average) | Metric | January 2026 | February 2026 | | :— | :— | :— | | Total Daily Supply | 64.9 Million Litres | 39.6 Million Litres | | Local Refining (Dangote) | 40.1 Million Litres | 36.5 Million Litres | | Imports | 24.8 Million Litres | 3.1 Million Litres* | | Market Share (Local) | 62% | 92%+ | *Residual volume from previously issued licences or specific buffers.
The Dangote Factor: From Importer to Exporter
The 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) Lekki-based refinery has become the undisputed cornerstone of Nigeria’s energy security. By March 2026, the plant reached a milestone live processing rate of 661,000 bpd, surpassing its original design capacity.
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Surplus for Export: Having satisfied the domestic consumption benchmark (roughly 50–60 million litres/day), the Dangote Group announced it would begin exporting up to 20 million litres of petrol daily to international markets.
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Price Volatility: While supply is abundant, pump prices surged toward ₦1,000 per litre in early March. Regulators and analysts attribute this to the escalating Middle East conflict, which has driven global crude costs and freight rates to multi-year highs.
The Status of State Refineries
While the private sector flourishes, the state-owned NNPC refineries in Port Harcourt, Warri, and Kaduna remain largely offline for ongoing “high-grade rehabilitation.”
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Port Harcourt Refinery: Currently shut down for technical reviews; NNPC has ruled out a sale, opting instead to seek private technical partners by June 2026.
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Transition to Hybrid: NNPC intends to redesign these plants into “hybrid” facilities to ensure their final output meets modern international standards, which were previously “two steps below” current market requirements.
Economic Resilience or Monopoly?
The suspension of licences has sparked a national debate. While the Crude Oil Refiners Association of Nigeria (CORAN) hailed the move as a victory for “Made in Nigeria,” others express concern over the lack of competition.
“At this moment, there is no need to import because local production is meeting supply,” noted NMDPRA spokesperson George Ene-Ita. “When there is a shortfall, we will issue licensing to buffer local production.”
