In a landmark moment for Africa’s energy independence, billionaire businessman Femi Otedola took to social media on Thursday, February 12, 2026, to celebrate a “transformational” achievement by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. The facility has officially reached its full nameplate capacity of 650,000 barrels per day (bpd), marking a definitive end to Nigeria’s decades-long reliance on imported fuel.
Otedola’s optimism extended beyond energy security to a bold macroeconomic forecast: he believes the Naira, currently trading around ₦1,354/$1, could strengthen to below ₦1,000/$1 by the end of 2026.
1. Technical Milestone: Full Nameplate Capacity
The announcement, made on Wednesday, February 11, followed a successful optimization of the refinery’s Crude Distillation Unit (CDU) and Motor Spirit (MS) Block.
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Operational Stability: The CDU and MS Block—which include the naphtha hydrotreater, isomerisation unit, and reformer—are now operating at 100% capacity.
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Domestic Supply Boost: While the refinery supplied 45–50 million liters of petrol (PMS) daily during the recent festive season, it is now positioned to deliver up to 75 million liters daily, more than meeting Nigeria’s total daily requirement.
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Global Record: Dangote is now recognized as the first refinery globally to achieve full nameplate capacity on a single train of this scale.
2. The $12 Billion Expansion: Path to 1.4 Million bpd
Even as the refinery hits its current peak, Aliko Dangote has already initiated a massive $12 billion expansion project.
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Target Capacity: The goal is to reach 1.4 million bpd, which would make it the largest refining complex in the world, surpassing India’s Jamnagar refinery.
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Petrochemical Hub: The expansion focuses on high-value chemical production to support industrial growth:
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Polypropylene: Increasing to 2.4 million metric tonnes annually (for plastics/packaging).
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Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB): 400,000 metric tonnes annually (the primary raw material for laundry detergents).
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3. Foreign Exchange & The “₦1,000/$$1” Forecast
Otedola’s prediction is rooted in the “forex relief” that comes from ending fuel imports.
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Conserving Reserves: Analysts estimate that full domestic refining will save Nigeria up to $10 billion annually in foreign exchange.
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Naira Recovery: With fuel imports accounting for roughly 30% of Nigeria’s total forex demand, the elimination of this pressure is expected to drastically improve the Naira’s value.
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Current Market Status: As of mid-February 2026, the Naira has already hit a two-year high in the official market, consolidating in the 1,350–1,360 range.
4. Addressing the Skeptics: The Kpler Outlook
Despite the celebratory tone, energy analytics firm Kpler had previously cautioned that the first half of 2026 might see “uneven” ramp-ups.
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RFCC Reliability: Kpler noted that outages in the Residual Fluid Catalytic Cracking (RFCC) unit—the “engine room” for high-octane gasoline—had previously capped production.
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Strategic Pivot: To manage this, the refinery shifted to a lighter crude slate (API gravity 37–39), ensuring that secondary units remained operational even during maintenance.
The “New Energy Narrative” Snapshot (Feb 2026)
“Aliko is not stopping here… Work has already commenced in earnest. This is transformational for Nigeria and Africa.” — Femi Otedola, February 12, 2026
