The strategic partnership between Nigeria and China has entered a high-growth phase, characterized by a 30.2% year-on-year increase in bilateral trade. According to Ms. Yan Yuqing, China’s Consul General in Lagos, trade volume between January and October 2025 exceeded $22.3 billion, a figure that already surpasses the total trade recorded in the entirety of 2024.
As both nations look toward 2026—a year marking the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations—the focus is shifting from simple commodity exchange to deep-seated industrial and digital integration.
Infrastructure as a Trade Catalyst
The surge in trade volume is directly linked to the operational maturity of China-backed infrastructure projects in Lagos.
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Lekki Deep Sea Port: This flagship project is projected to handle an annual throughput of 520,000 TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) by the end of 2025, representing an 82% growth. It currently handles nearly 47% of Nigeria’s total cargo growth, making it the country’s second-largest port by trade value.
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The Lagos Rail Network: Record passenger volumes on the Lagos–Ibadan Railway and the Lagos Light Rail (Blue and Red Lines) have significantly reduced urban congestion and improved the efficiency of moving goods from the hinterland to the ports.
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Free Trade Zones (FTZs): The Lekki FTZ and Ogun–Guangdong FTZ have become the “engines” of local manufacturing, providing a base for Chinese firms to produce goods within Nigeria, thereby creating thousands of local jobs and facilitating technology transfer.
The 2026 Strategic Roadmap: “Beyond Infrastructure”
For 2026, the bilateral agenda is expanding into high-tech and “green” sectors under the umbrella of China’s 15th Five-Year Plan and Nigeria’s Renewed Hope Agenda.
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The Digital Economy: Intensified collaboration on 5G rollout, AI development, and fintech infrastructure.
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Renewable Energy: A pivot toward solar and hydroelectric investments to help Nigeria address its perennial power deficit.
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The Blue Economy: Sustainable maritime development and enhanced security in the Gulf of Guinea.
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Market Access: China is implementing measures to allow more zero-tariff access for Nigerian non-oil exports, such as sesame seeds, ginger, and cashews, to help balance the trade deficit.
China–Nigeria Trade Performance (2025 vs. 2026 Projection)
| Indicator | 2025 (Jan–Oct Actual) | 2026 Projection |
| Bilateral Trade Volume | $22.3 Billion | Estimated $25B+ |
| Year-on-Year Growth | 30.2% | Sustained ~15-20% |
| Lekki Port Throughput | 520,000 TEUs | 1,000,000 TEUs (Full Phase 1) |
| FDI from China | 130% increase | Continued Focus on Manufacturing |
| Nigerian Export Growth | 200% increase (Non-oil) | Focus on processed agricultural goods |
Geopolitical & Cultural Context
The relationship remains anchored in the “One-China” principle, which Nigeria reaffirmed during the recent symposium. Beyond commerce, the “China-Nigeria Film Week” and expanded educational scholarships are being used to build “people-to-people” bridges, ensuring that the economic partnership is supported by cultural understanding.
