Nigeria is poised for a significant economic turnaround in 2026, according to a highly optimistic forecast by economist Bismarck Rewane, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company (FDC). Rewane describes 2026 as a “defining year” where structural reforms, private-sector expansion, and stabilizing monetary conditions will converge, driving the country into a more durable cycle of growth—its strongest economic footing in more than a decade.
The projected boom is anchored on a combination of factors intended to resolve years of high inflation (which peaked over 34%) and crippling exchange-rate volatility.
The Capital Market Surge
The capital market is projected to be a primary beneficiary of the renewed investor sentiment:
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Market Cap Target: Rewane forecasts the Nigerian Exchange (NGX) total market capitalization to jump sharply from the current ₦93 trillion to ₦262 trillion in 2026.
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GDP Benchmark: This level would represent 72% of Nigeria’s projected GDP, positioning the NGX as one of the fastest-expanding markets in emerging economies.
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Mega-Listings: The expansion is attributed to the anticipated listings of mega-corporates, notably the Dangote Refinery and the Nigerian National Petroleum Company (NNPC), along with accelerating profitability in sectors like telecoms and banking.
Macroeconomic Pivot Points
Rewane predicts critical shifts in key macroeconomic indicators:
High-Potential Sectors
Rewane identified six industries that will shape the economic direction, leading in projected earnings for 2026:
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Agriculture & Agro-processing: (Projected Earnings: ₦104.6 trillion)
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Real Estate & Construction: (₦72.41 trillion)
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Telecommunications: (₦41.07 trillion)
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Manufacturing: (₦38.25 trillion)
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Creative Economy: (₦7.23 trillion)
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Technology & Fintech: (₦2.97 trillion)
The banking sector is also expected to achieve strengthened stability indicators, helped by moderating inflation and stronger capital buffers following the recapitalization exercise.
Risks to the Outlook
Despite the strong optimism, Rewane warned that the forecast is vulnerable to global and domestic risks: oil prices falling below $60 per barrel, worsening insecurity in food-producing states, excessive election-year spending in 2026, and a sharp decline in global commodity prices.
In conclusion, Rewane stressed that the success of this “profound economic reset” hinges on the quality of policy choices and the discipline of fiscal and monetary authorities in the year ahead.
