Nigeria’s economy sustained its momentum into the final quarter of 2025, marking an impressive eleven consecutive months of business expansion. The Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) reported a notable rise in the Current Business Performance Index, climbing to 113.3 points in November (up from 111.3 in October), signaling a robust 16.0 index point jump year-over-year.
This enduring streak is overwhelmingly anchored by a massive surge in the Trade Sector, which emerged as the month’s star performer. The sector’s index skyrocketed by 71.1 points, reaching an extraordinary 186.5 points, its highest level for the year.
The Drivers: Why Confidence is Soaring
The NESG attributes this exceptional performance to the confluence of positive macroeconomic factors and seasonal dynamics, creating a rare period of optimism:
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Macroeconomic Stability: The broader non-oil driven economic expansion (GDP grew 3.98% in Q3 2025) provides a solid foundation.
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Currency Predictability: The relative stability of the exchange rate, a rarity since the currency flotation, introduced a much-needed layer of predictability for importers and businesses.
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Eased Inflation: Cooling inflation, now at a three-year low, has improved consumer purchasing power, directly driving demand.
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Seasonal Uptick: Retail trade recorded the biggest jump (141.4 points) as consumers increased spending on food, electronics, and clothing in anticipation of year-end celebrations.
This optimism extended, albeit at a more moderate pace, across other key sectors: Non-Manufacturing (117.0 points), Manufacturing (114.2 points), Services (105.8 points), and Agriculture (103.3 points). Key sub-indices, from supply orders to access to credit and cash flow, all registered modest improvements, suggesting a positive outlook for capital formation and investment.
The Trade-Off: Structural Headwinds Remain
Despite the current boom, the report issued a clear caution: the gains are fragile and structural constraints persist. The high velocity of the trade sector exposes deep-seated operational pressures that could undermine long-term productivity once seasonal demand fades.
The critical risks include:
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Security and Logistics: Persistent insecurity in major market clusters and frequent supply chain bottlenecks due to inadequate transport infrastructure.
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Operational Costs: Though the cost of doing business eased slightly, rising input prices, poor power supply, and policy uncertainty remain threats.
The Future Outlook: Sustaining the Momentum
Future expectations among traders are exceptionally strong, with the trade sector posting the highest optimism level (186.5 points), anticipating robust sales well into early 2026.
However, analysts stress that converting this seasonal euphoria into sustained, long-term growth requires targeted, proactive intervention. Sustaining the momentum hinges on government action to strengthen market security, upgrade logistics networks, and stabilize the macroeconomic environment beyond temporary currency fixes. Without these comprehensive structural reforms, the rapid gains recorded in November could dissipate once the festive period tapers off.
