Lagos, Nigeria – The Nigerian private sector maintained its expansionary momentum in June 2025, marking six consecutive months of growth, according to the latest NESG-Stanbic IBTC Business Confidence Monitor (BCM). The composite index rose to 113.6 points, up from 109.8 in May, signaling sustained optimism among business leaders despite persistent structural hurdles.
Sectoral Performance Highlights
Manufacturing Leads Growth (+9.2 pts to 123.6)
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Strongest sub-sectors: Textiles/Apparel (+15%), Cement (+12%), Plastics (+10%)
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Constraints: 78% cite electricity shortages, 65% face forex scarcity
Trade Sector Rebounds (+6.9 pts to 121.0)
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Retail exits contraction (89.2 → 111.7) on festival demand
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Wholesale remains robust at 130.3 despite logistics bottlenecks
Agriculture Recovers (+10.7 pts to 108.9)
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Crop production surges (95.1 → 109.6) during harvest season
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Dairy/livestock boost from Danish heifer imports
Non-Manufacturing Slowdown (122.2 → 120.7)
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Oil/gas services grow but “Other Non-Manufacturing” contracts (98.4)
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Diesel costs up 23% YoY eroding margins
Key Growth Drivers
Inflation Easing (June: 28.7% vs May 31.2%)
Relative FX Stability (Official rate: ₦1,530/$ ±2% in Q2)
Seasonal Demand (New Yam Festival, Ramadan retail boost)
Persistent Challenges
Top 5 Business Constraints:
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Electricity outages (87% of firms affected)
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High borrowing costs (Prime rate: 27.5%)
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Multiple taxes/levies
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Insecurity disrupting supply chains
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Rising commercial rents (+40% in Lagos since 2023)
Future Outlook
Optimism Index Rises to 134.5 (May: 132.4)
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Manufacturing most bullish (160.4) on expected policy reforms
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Services least confident (122.3) due to telecoms sector slump
NESG Analyst Note:
“The expansion is fragile—without urgent fixes to power and credit access, the positive trend could reverse by Q3.”
