Lagos, Nigeria – Nigeria’s oil industry is set for a November rebound, with exports scheduled to reach 1.876 million barrels per day (bpd) – the highest level since May 2024 and a 17% increase over last November’s figures, according to latest loading programs.
Key Drivers of the Surge
Big Four Grades Lead Recovery:
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Forcados, Bonga, Bonny Light & Qua Iboe collectively rising to 822,967 bpd (from 728,258 bpd in October)
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Highest combined output since June 2024
New Production Boost:
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Egina Field (operated by France’s Total) launching this month
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Expected to add 200,000 bpd by December
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First major deepwater expansion in 3 years
By the Numbers
1.876M bpd – November export target (59 cargoes)
17% higher than November 2023 volumes
1 Akpo condensate cargo included in schedule
Industry Context:
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Comes after months of underproduction due to theft and underinvestment
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$1.5B in new upstream investments activated this quarter
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Brent crude prices stabilizing at $85-$90/barrel range
Cautious Optimism
While the numbers signal recovery, experts note:
Historical Delays: 30% of scheduled cargoes typically roll over
Infrastructure Risks: Pipelines remain vulnerable to sabotage
OPEC+ Quotas: Nigeria’s cap currently at 1.5M bpd (ex-condensates)
Quote:
“Egina’s coming online is a game-changer – but sustained growth requires solving our security and regulatory challenges.”
— Energy Analyst at Lagos Financial Institution
Why This Matters:
Revenue Boost: Could add $200M+/month to government coffers
Market Confidence: Signals recovery after 2023-24 production slump
Job Creation: Offshore projects like Egina employ 5,000+ Nigerians
What’s Next?
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December Target: 2M+ bpd if Egina hits full capacity
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NNPC Reforms: New crude-for-fuel swap deals to stabilize supply
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Q1 2025: Final investment decision on Bonga South West field
