Lagos, Nigeria – Nigeria recorded a $3.73 billion balance of payments (BOP) surplus in the first quarter of 2025, driven by a weaker naira and reduced fuel imports due to the Dangote Refinery’s increased production, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Key Highlights from CBN’s Q1 2025 Report
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Current Account Surplus: $3.73B (down slightly from $3.80B in Q4 2024 but higher than $3.69B in Q1 2024)
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Goods Account Balance: $4.16B (up from $2.62B in Q4 2024)
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Non-Oil Exports: Rose 30.39% to $2.66B
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Gas Exports: Increased from $2.10B to $2.66B
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Non-Oil Imports: Fell from $7.37B to $6.77B
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Petrol Import Bill: Plunged to N1.76 trillion (from N3.81 trillion in Q1 2024)
Why Nigeria’s Trade Balance Improved
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Naira Depreciation – Made imports more expensive, forcing businesses to cut foreign purchases.
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Dangote Refinery Impact – Reduced reliance on imported fuel, saving billions in forex.
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Rising Non-Oil Exports – Increased sales of gas and other goods offset oil production declines.
Experts Weigh In
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Dr. Muda Yusuf (CPPE): “The naira’s fall discouraged imports, while Dangote’s refinery is cutting fuel imports. The surplus dip is marginal—this is still positive.”
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Dr. Adam Abudu (Economic Analyst): “We need more projects like Dangote’s refinery. Government must stay consistent with pro-local investor policies.”
Challenges Remain
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Falling Reserves: External reserves dropped to $37.82B (from $40.19B in Dec 2024).
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Crude Oil Decline: Production fell to 1.45M barrels per day (May 2025), hurting potential forex earnings.
The Big Picture
While Nigeria’s trade position has strengthened, sustaining this surplus will depend on:
Boosting oil & gas output
Maintaining Dangote Refinery’s supply chain
Stabilizing the naira
Bottom Line: The surplus shows early gains from Nigeria’s economic reforms—but long-term success hinges on deeper structural changes.
