Nigeria’s macroeconomic adjustment policies are yielding positive results in the international trade arena. Driven by aggressive import compression and sustained crude oil revenues, the country recorded a trade surplus of ₦7.55 trillion in the first quarter (Q1) of 2026.
This figure represents a massive 340.88% leap over the ₦1.7 trillion surplus recorded in the final quarter (Q4) of 2025. It also marks a 46% expansion when compared to the ₦5.17 trillion surplus posted during the same period last year.
Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that this shift is not just due to higher production, but reflects a major structural change: a sharp decline in the importation of refined petroleum products paired with a stable crude oil export run.
The Export Composition: The Hydrocarbon Dependency Challenge
During the first quarter of 2026, Nigeria’s total export invoice reached ₦21.17 trillion, accounting for 60.85% of total aggregate trade. While this reflects an 11.63% quarterly increase from Q4 2025, an analysis of the export composition reveals that the country remains highly dependent on hydrocarbons:
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Crude Oil Dominance: Crude oil sales remained the primary foreign exchange driver, pulling in ₦11.2 trillion to account for 52.92% of all outbound trade.
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The Non-Crude Segment: Non-crude oil exports (which include gas condensates and semi-processed petroleum products) brought in ₦9.97 trillion (47.08%).
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The Non-Oil Core: True non-oil items—completely separate from the oil and gas sector—contributed a modest ₦3.19 trillion, representing just 15.05% of total national exports. This low figure underscores the urgent need to diversify the country’s export base.
Import Compression: The Refining and Agriculture Shifts
The most significant driver of the ₦7.55 trillion surplus was a sharp contraction in imports, which fell to ₦13.62 trillion (representing 39.15% of total trade volume). This reflects an 18.17% year-on-year drop from Q1 2025, and a 21.05% contraction from Q4 2025.
A key highlight of this import contraction is the 42.39% quarterly drop in imported agricultural products, which fell from ₦1.44 trillion in Q4 2025 down to ₦827.72 billion in Q1 2026. This sharp decline suggests that local agro-processors are increasingly substituting imported raw materials with domestic alternatives due to higher foreign exchange costs.
However, this import contraction coincided with a worrying 31.2% year-on-year decline in agricultural exports, which dropped to ₦1.17 trillion. This double drop indicates that while Nigeria is spending less foreign exchange on food imports, domestic security challenges and logistical bottlenecks are continuing to limit its ability to export agricultural goods.
Raw Materials, Solid Minerals, and Manufactured Goods
The performance of non-oil sectors showed mixed results across industrial value chains:
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Raw Material Exports Surge: Outbound raw material shipments reached ₦1.53 trillion, a 46.83% year-on-year increase from Q1 2025. Economists note that a spike in raw material exports can be a double-edged sword: it boosts immediate liquidity, but can also indicate that local manufacturers are struggling to process these materials domestically, leading them to export crude inputs instead.
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Solid Minerals Growth: The mining sector showed strong growth, with solid mineral exports rising 74.63% year-on-year to ₦102.80 billion, up from ₦58.87 billion in Q1 2025. This increase reflects the positive impact of formalization policies in the mining sector.
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Manufacturing Volatility: Manufactured exports showed a modest 2.79% year-on-year increase to ₦302.64 billion. However, the sector recorded a sharp 28.53% quarterly drop from the ₦423.43 billion achieved in Q4 2025, highlighting the ongoing impact of high energy costs and operational inflation on domestic factories.
The Macro Outlook
Nigeria’s historic ₦7.55 trillion trade surplus provides a strong buffer for its foreign reserves and helps stabilize the local currency. However, for this surplus to translate into long-term economic stability, policymakers must look beyond import compression.
The next step requires transforming the economy from one that relies on exporting raw materials and crude oil into a high-value manufacturing hub. By resolving local logistical challenges and boosting industrial capacity, Nigeria can ensure that its trade surplus is driven by high-value exports rather than a reduction in domestic consumption.
